Top Tv Shows 2005

Every year at the Consumer Electronics Show, I look at hundreds of products and talk to vendors, customers, and journalists about what's hot and what's not. This year, along with all the conversation, I managed a team that posted 135 separate news and analysis stories about the show. As the event coalesced, key themes emerged that will drive the consumer-technology industry now and over the next four or five years. Here are my top ten themes from CES 2005. Unlike David Letterman's lists, though, they're not in any particular order.

1. Digital TV Gets Cheaper and Cheaper: We've chronicled this on ExtremeTech, but the trend is only going to accelerate. With 30" LCD TVs approaching $1,500, ultrathin tube-TVs rivaling rear-projection models, and amazingly cheap three-LCD RPTVs that may just rival DLP and plasma, it will be easier and cheaper to replace that aging tube TV with a digital-capable set. And with all the new factories coming on line, expect prices to continue their inexorable slide.

2. Post-HDTV World is Coming: Here in the US, HDTV means 720p or 1080i. But the industry is already envisioning a world of progressive scan 1080—double the resolution of the biggest current sets. The plasmas and DLP projectors on display supporting 1080p looked great. Alas, we may not have much content to take advantage of these great-looking displays.

3. Not Now for High-Definition DVD: Both Blu-ray and HD-DVD are ready to go, and vendors were showing off drives and players for each. Alas, with two competing standards—and high-profile announcements of support for each—neither will take off over the next 18 months. Even though current DVDs look a bit pale on today's modern HDTVs, don't expect anything substantial until late 2006. And if the warring factions can't get their act together, it could stretch out into 2008 or later. To quote Bugs Bunny, "What a bunch of maroons."

4. Home Media Networking Will Be Big: Yes, we all will be moving our media around the house and to portable devices. But the question is, "When will someone get it right?" I looked at networking schemes from TiVo, DivX, DirecTV, and many others. Someone will figure this one out, but none of the current solutions are easy enough, or transparent enough, for most consumers. Only startup Sonos seemed to understand the need for simplicity, but its products are audio-only and expensive.

5. DVR is a Feature, Not a Product: Back when TiVo and ReplayTV launched, the digital video recorder seemed to be the next big electronics product, after DVD. But over the last five years, hard-drive and flash-based-media recording have become pervasive. DVR is rapidly becoming part of many consumer devices, from satellite radio to set top boxes. DirecTV rolled out its own homegrown versions, joining Motorola, Scientific Atlanta, and more. Even TiVo realizes that DVR alone is not enough, as it rolled out additional services and connectivity designed to turn its box into the hub of the digital home. Anyone planning on building a standalone DVR ought to have their head examined.

6. Miniaturization Continues: Yes, you can get too small. I saw tiny phones with unpressable buttons, little video screens that should ship with magnifying glasses, and MP3 players smaller than a quarter. I even walked home with a handful of tiny RFID microchips designed to be implanted under your skin. Apple and Sun used to say that "the network is the computer". Based on CES, before long we'll be saying, "The body is the computer."

7. PC Vendors Don't Matter: Microsoft, Intel, and HP all delivered keynote addresses that could have been a platform for a new and innovative look at how these PC stalwarts were rethinking the digital-media landscape. Instead, they all flopped. The buzz around Microsoft's keynote was how all the demos failed, HP rolled out an HDTV device that didn't work (and wasn't available to gawk over, either on the show floor or in a private meeting room), and nobody mentioned Intel's keynote at all. Dell was crammed into a way-back corner of the south hall (I walked the hall three times and still didn't see them). Gateway and IBM/Lenovo were no-shows. The consumer-electronics industry has passed the PC by.

8. China Is a Major Force: Despite the Lenovo no-show, China will continue to steamroll the competition in CE. The country has already taken over the manufacture of DVD players and tube TVs—witness the tremendous growth of Apex, SVA, and others. And based on what I saw at CES, they are about to become huge players in flat-screen TVs, cell phones, and more.

9. Satellite Radio Is Here to Stay: I admit that when XM and Sirius launched, I was a skeptic. Who would pay $10 a month for radio, I wondered. But with recent deals with Howard Stern, baseball, and football, and more high-profile signings coming soon, I'm much more optimistic. And XM and Sirius players were everywhere on the show floor, from the automobile area in the north hall to portable media players in the south. Subscriber growth has been tremendous, with more gains to come. And you can count me as a subscriber too—I've recently installed a Sirius Sportster at home and in my car, and I love it!

10. Portable Video Players Explode: It's still too early to know whether the audience will adopt them, but the video/photo/music player was a staple of this year's announcements. Although I didn't see any new Windows-based media players, a flood of Linux and proprietary-OS players were everywhere—priced from $100 to $600 and up. Dish Network teamed up with Archos, Samsung released a kid-friendly mini-DVD player, and Coby combined a DVD with a portable CD player. Just because you can take it with you, though, doesn't mean people will. But there will be no shortage of products to choose from if you like watching video on the go.

That's it for 2005. If you want details on these and other products, don't miss our complete coverage. You can find it at http://pcmag.com/ces.

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Copyright © 2005 Ziff Davis Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. Originally appearing in PC Magazine.

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