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HDTV Powerbrokers Convene in DC

Nick Stam

The ninth annual HDTV Summit was held in Washington DC on March 29th, bringing together the drivers of high-definition TV deployment in the United States, including HDTV and set-top device manufacturers, content distributors, retailers, media, and government officials. Produced by the Consumer Electronics Association (purveyors of the popular Consumer Electronics Show), the summit focused on the status of transitioning from analog to digital TV (DTV) broadcasting, HDTV display technologies and content availability, critical roadblocks to widespread consumer adoption, and FCC regulations and policies. Controversial issues included the December 31, 2006 deadline after which all analog TV broadcasting is presently scheduled to cease (if 85% of homes are able to receive DTV signals), and digital rights management and fair use related to over-the-air DTV broadcasts.

The summit was kicked off by Gary Shapiro, President and CEO of the Consumer Electronics Association. Gary stated that 9M (nine million) HDTVs have been sold to date, with 438K sold in January 2004 alone. The CEA projects 5.7M units in 2004, 9.4M in 2005, 15.6M in 2006, and 23M in 2007. Currently, 700 hours of HD content can be found on cable per week, and 117 models of HDTVs include over-the-air (OTA) HD tuners built-in, obviating the need for a separate receiver. Gary cited digital cable ready (DCR) HDTV sets from Panasonic and RCA that accept "CableCARDs" and were on display at the show.

CableCARDs are merely PC Card form-factor devices that descramble premium cable content, precluding the need for set-top boxes, and plug into DCR TVs, set-top devices, and digital recorders. Unfortunately, the first-generation CableCARDs will not support interactive services, like pay-per-view, video-on-demand, or other interactive services, but a capable "two-way" CableCARD is in the works, expected next year. All cable operators will support first-generation DCR devices by the 2nd half of 2004.

Shapiro was concerned that two-thirds of DTV broadcast stations transmit at low power, reducing the reach of over-the-air content, and he wanted to see far more true HD content being broadcast over the air, instead of standard definition (SD) digital content. Gary also wanted cable operators to stop transmitting HD content with compression technologies that reduce picture quality. He wanted cable HD delivery to have the same quality as OTA broadcast HD. Shapiro said content providers and distributors should implement the "broadcast flag" (see below for more details) in such a way that it does not restrict digital recording and movement of HD content by consumers between devices in their homes. Reflecting back on the introduction of color TV 50 years ago, Shapiro claimed DTV is being adopted at twice the rate of color TV.

Next up was a congressional keynote delivered by the Hon. Fred Upton (R-MI), Chairman of the Telecommunications Subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives. Upton discussed the increasing integration of DTV tuners in HDTVs, DTV transmission tower build-out, the broadcast flag, and the 2006 deadline for dropping analog transmissions. He questioned if 2006 is a reasonable deadline for dropping analog TV broadcasting, suggesting 2010 or even 2020 might be more in line. In fact, no presenters following Upton actually believed analog TV broadcasting would come to a halt at the end of 2006. The need to attach a converter box to an analog TV set which translates digital TV broadcasts to analog would be a hardship for low-income individuals and families. And even if many people owned HD-capable TVs by the end of 2006, most will still have one or more analog TVs in service. For more details on the transition to DTV see this FCC FAQ.

Upton mentioned that Berlin stopped broadcasting in analog, and we should look to them for pointers. Note that public safety and national security are major concerns, and shutting down analog TV broadcasts in 2006 is highly unlikely for those reasons alone. Finally, Upton pointed out that 15 cable systems deliver HD content and more than 75% of U.S. households can receive HD content today. He pointed to 84M having cable or satellite connections (which implies they have access to HD programming using HD-capable cable set-top boxes or special three-LNB satellite dishes and fairly expensive HD-capable satellite receivers).

Sean Wargo, director of industry analysis for the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), stated that revenues from HDTV sales will hit $75B in 2007 versus $15B in 2003. He said households tuning in HD content will increase from 2.7% in 2003 to 3.7% in 2004, and rise to 33% by 2007. By 2006, flat-panel LCD and plasma displays will be leading revenue generators, and microdisplay rear-projection sets (including DLP, LCD, and LCoS) will move from 250K sets sold in 2003 to 2.7M units in 2007.

Wargo displayed results from CEA polls showing 64% of consumers want digital cable ready sets, 54% want flat screens (not necessarily flat-panel), 50% want HDTVs, 38% want 16x9 aspect ratios, 38% want integrated HD tuners, and 33% want flat panels specifically. A large contingent of mainstream consumers, 34%, will NOT buy an HDTV as their next TV, and 25% have totally ruled out HDTV purchases in the foreseeable future. While 69% cited price as the major roadblock, most were overwhelmed by the perceived complexity and number of choices. The largest group of polled nay-sayers has lower than average income and education, and tends to be 55+ years old. Wargo says HDTV technology needs far more promotion and better training of retail salespeople. Specifically, he cited CEKnowHow.com as a great site for retail training.

Jim Barry, a CEA spokesperson conducted a number of surveys and studies on the road, talking to consumers and retailers, and he also stressed education being critical to HDTV rollout, and said salespeople need to avoid "techy talk" at all costs. And he cautioned content distributors (cable and satellite operators) to not degrade picture quality and sound via various compression algorithms and other transmission techniques.

Jonathan Takiff, a staff writer for the Philadelphia Daily News moderated the Consumer Education Panel, which included Mark Cuban, chairman and president of HDNet (and owner of the Dallas Mavericks); Bryan Burns, VP in charge of ESPN HD; Jack Williams, president of Comcast SportsNet; Sam Goldstein, director and producer at Capital Region Broadcasters, WRGB TV-6 (yes, that's WRGB - a great name for a TV station); Gigi Sohn, president and co-founder, Public Knowledge; and Gary Yacoubian, vice president, MyerEmco AudioVideo.

Although the session was not entirely focused on consumer education, it was interesting. Williams mentioned that Comcast made its HD content available to 84% of subscribers by the end of 2003, and they expect 90% by the end of 2004. We'll see all Philadelphia Flyers, Sixers, and Phillies home games in HD later this year. Burns said ESPN HD produced 145 original HD events since coming on line last year, and expects 200 events in 2004. Best Buy is currently highlighting the differences between SD and HD with side-by-side displays in multiple stores using ESPN HD content.

Sam Goldstein mentioned a major problem of over-the-air (OTA) reception is the need to point an antenna in multiple directions to receive different HD signals from different broadcast antenna towers. The Capital Region Broadcasters consortium includes six broadcasters in the Albany N.Y. region who share a community DTV transmission tower. Costs are reduced for the broadcasters, but just as important, it's much easier for consumers to receive local OTA HD content without having to constantly reposition their antennas, or purchase expensive antennas capable of handling multiple signals from multiple directions.

Mark Cuban said that HDNet is provided free to over 1000 retail outlets to showcase HDTV image quality (and of course his network). Regarding consumer education, Cuban is pushing a variety of media outlets to better understand and promote HDTV technology. He claimed HDTV technology is simplistic, and the media overstates the challenges of HDTV purchases and installation. Cuban says it's easy - you turn on the TV, change channels, and voila, you have high definition content. True, but we think Mark misses the point. Selecting from a variety of HDTV technologies for your specific viewing situation and budget, then determining the best method(s) to receive HD content (which might include complex antenna hookups), and figuring out proper HDTV positioning in your living area (possibly requiring new stands or entertainment units to hold larger TVs, or reconstucting existing cabinets, or setting up projection systems, etc.), followed by cabling into your home entertainment center, can be challenging for intelligent technology-savvy buyers, let alone those less technically sophisticated. Once all the above items are ironed out, changing channels is definitely easy.

Gary Yacoubian's company installs custom, high-end home theaters in the Washington, DC market, and says HDTV technology is filled with confusing elements. He said most consumers are uncertain of terms like HD compatible, HD ready, HD tuner, and HD monitor. A big misconception is that any TV that has a flat screen is also digital. One customer asked if he must periodically recharge the gas in his plasma TV. Another fear is that today's expensive HDTV purchases will soon be obsolete.

Gigi Sohn was the feistiest presenter of the day, and her firm, Public Knowledge, filed a lawsuit in January 2004 challenging the FCC's authority to enforce adoption of the broadcast flag by consumer electronics and computer manufacturers by July 2005. The FCC stated it would also establish broadcast flag implementation compliance and robustness rules.

The broadcast flag is embedded in a DTV signal and it can be interpreted by devices that could prevent copying and redistribution of protected, high-value digital content. Certainly consumers want to make personal copies and play such digital content on various devices in their homes without restrictions. Even though the FCC has agreed to enforce implementation of the broadcast flag by July 2005 in various devices, how it's actually used in practice is still subject to much debate and future rulings. One thing is pretty certain, users will not be allowed to redistribute protected digital content over the Internet. (Here's a link to see the FCC ruling. And here's a link to an excellent white paper discussing the broadcast flag and its implications.)

Sohn claims the whole idea of protecting over-the-air broadcast signals is silly today, since local broadcasters do not freely transmit high-value Hollywood-type content (that may change in the future with implementation of the broadcast flag). See more issues with the broadcast flag cited by Public Knowledge in its lawsuit. Sohn followed up by stating the broadcast flag doesn't prevent analog recording of high-value content, the so-called "analog hole", where high-quality analog copies of digital content can still be illegally copied and distributed. Sohn concluded that by implementing the broadcast flag and slowing the adoption of DTV, Hollywood will have more time to develop even more restrictive copy protection mechanisms.

Cuban was also quite concerned about compression artifacts and multicasting (multiple SD channels can be encoded into the same bandwidth as a single HD channel). Many people notice degradation of cable and satellite HD channels versus over-the-air broadcasts due to compression schemes, and if broadcasters decide to multicast SD and HD streams simultaneously, the HD stream quality will be reduced. Jonathan Takiff's pet peeve is the practice employed by Comcast and ESPN when running SD content on their HD channels. They stretch the SD image to fill the 16:9 screen, which distorts the image.

All agreed that Extended Definition TV (EDTV) seen in lower cost plasma displays in particular, adds to confusing consumers. None of the panelists saw the transition to DTV occurring at the end of 2006, and many didn't see it occuring by the end of the decade either, given 200M non-HDTVs are still expected to be in service (even though 100M HDTVs are projected to be sold by then). Mark Cuban ended by saying "make HDTV simple", and "discontinue analog"!

The HDTV Summit also included its own award ceremony honoring HDTV's best-of-the-best in content development, delivery, and DTV transition leadership. All awards but the People's Choice were voted by academy members.

Here were the winners in various categories: Best DTV Broadcast Network - CBS Best Local DTV Broadcaster - WRAL (Raleigh, NC) Best DTV Cable System - Comcast Best DTV Satellite Service - DirecTV Best DTV Satellite Programmer - HDNet Best DTV Sporting Event - ABC Monday Night Football Best Original DTV Material - ABC Monday Night Football Best DTV Industry Leadership - John Taylor, LG Electronics Best DTV Government Leadership - Michael Powell, FCC Chairman Best DTV Retailer Leadership Award - Best Buy Best DTV Journalism - TWICE People's Choice Award (most loved HDTV program) - CSI: Miami (CBS)

Michael Petricone, vice president of technology policy at Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), moderated a panel titled "2006--A Spectrum Odyssey", including Hillary Brill, legislative counsel for Hon. Rick Boucher, US House of Representatives; Rick Chessen, chairman, FCC Digital Television Task Force and associate chief of the media bureau, Federal Communications Commission; Paul Martino, counsel, Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, U.S. Senate; and Rob Stein, telecommunications counsel to Hon. Lee Terry, U.S. House of Representatives.

Petricone asked the panelists if there's anything else the industry can be doing beyond what's being done today to educate consumers and promote HDTV. Responses included seeing more HD promotion on analog broadcasts, similar to promotions seen on various high-profile sporting events and awards shows. Consumers need more information not only on HDTV, but also the transition to DTV. Also, many people believe that because they have a digital TV, they have HD content, and that's not the case. Consumers should be informed about signal levels and quality levels they are receiving. (We believe all HDTVs should have a display mode that indicates the type of signal being played, such as 1080i, 720p, 480p, and 480i.)

Consumers need to understand the limitations of the upcoming digital cable ready (DCR) sets, also called Plug and Play sets, that use CableCARDs. As mentioned, pay-per-view and other interactive two-way services will not be supported in the first generation, and users desiring such features will still need a set-top box.

This panel had more questions than answers regarding the broadcast flag. Will broadcasters deliver high value content over-the-air? Will consumers be better or worse off with a broadcast flag? And what about existing customers that don't have the ability to handle broadcast flags with their older equipment - does the high value content go dark, or dumb down to SD? Rick did say that although the FCC supports the broadcast flag, they are prohibiting selective output control, where only a given output can display high-value content (sets with analog component outputs must be able to display broadcast flag-protected HDTV content, not just DVI or HDMI digital connections). By July 2005, broadcast flag support must be incorporated into DTV receivers.

Other key questions raised -- will the government subsidize the transition to DTV, by purchasing digital to analog converters for lower income consumers? A few panelists said the transition could be funded by the revenue received from the government's auctioning of the analog spectrum regained after analog transmission eventually ceases. All panelists were concerned that consumers must get what they want, whether it be high quality HDTV or analog TV (if they can't afford or do not want to convert to digital anytime soon). Most believed the broadcast flag and DRM issues in general required delicate balancing of content provider interests and consumer interests. Consumer education was of paramount importance. To wrap up the HDTV Summit, Mike Feazel, Managing Editor of Communications Daily, fostered discussion and debate between three powerful panelists including Eddie O. Fritts, President and CEO, National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), Robert Sachs, President and CEO, National Cable and Telecommunications Association (NCTA), and Gary Shapiro, President and CEO, Consumer Electronics Association (CEA).

Sachs claimed digital cable had reached 30% saturation nationwide, and of the 9M digital TVs sold to date, 85% are capable of displaying HD content. Shapiro chimed in stating that CEA estimates 1.2M OTA receivers have been sold to date. Sachs stressed that HDTV audio quality is important, and many people tend to forget that HDTV streams often include Dolby Digital audio (see this link for a listing of DTV programs with Dolby Digital soundtracks). Sachs also mentioned that we'll see many Plug and Play (DCR) TVs by summer.

Fritts stressed key issues including the DTV transition, Plug and Play, and the broadcast flag. He said that broadcasters would be ready for the transition if it truly occurred at the end of 2006. But he also commented if we shut down analog service on December 31st, 2006, impeachments would follow on January 1st, 2007! The transition must be made palatable for the consumer, warned Fritts. Currently, 62% of the country can watch eight or more DTV channels over the air.

Sachs mentioned that 15M to 18M homes have neither cable nor satellite, receiving signals over the air to their analog TVs, and that they must be covered. He too suggested a government subsidy for the set-top digital to analog converter boxes for lower-income consumers. And Sachs also mentioned that while Berlin performed the transition to digital, they have no high definition, it was all SD.

Shapiro implored that we need to get the analog spectrum back to use for more advanced digital transmission capabilities, but also stated that he did not foresee the transition actually occurring until at least 2010, or maybe even 2012. Sachs said it was difficult to predict when the transition might actually occur.

In addition to possible subsidies for lower income families, how do we handle multiple analog sets in many consumer homes? Sachs mentioned that very low cost converters will be available. And while the CableCARD initiative is on schedule, Sachs said that future two-way CableCARDs are mandatory for enabling advanced interactive digital cable services.

A DirectTV HD TiVO is finally hitting the market in the next few months, or even weeks. There's a huge backlog of orders per the DirecTV reps on the show flow. The HD DVR will include a 250GB hard drive and be able to store around 25-30 hours of HD content, or up to 200 hours of SD content. Users will be able to record both DirecTV and over-the-air HD content. Two different SD streams can be recorded (either from DirecTV or over-the-air) while watching a third stream that was previously recorded. A single HD stream can be recorded while watching another HD stream. An HDMI with HDCP connector will be included, and outputs can be configured to 1080i, 720p, 480p, or 480i. While you can receive a number of HD shows over DirecTV including HBO, ShowTime, ESPN HD, Discovery HD Theater, HDNet, and HDNet Movies, you cannot get the major broadcast networks in HD. The unit will be priced at $999. (We'll wait a while for the pent up demand to be satisfied and for the price to drop).

See the following photos for a quick review of Digital Cable Ready sets and CableCARDs. Note the Comcast CableCARD is a PC Card.

Here are a few shots of a Panasonic HDTV with a CableCARD slot and an HDMI interface. The set will ship in a few months.

RCA also demonstrated its upcoming Scenium Profiles DLP-based HDTV with CableCARD and HDMI slots, but we unfortunately failed to get pictures from the show floor.

Copyright © 2004 Ziff Davis Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. Originally appearing in ExtremeTech.



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